New Crop Beans overdone

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Once the weather threat subsided, it felt that the market had priced in too much risk premium, and I was able to point out how overdone the new crop bean spreads had become.

Aug-Sep and Sep-Oct Meal

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Here old crop bean tightness and pushes in cash pointed out a good deal more bullish potential possible in the meal spreads.

Old Crop Beans

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With the flat price sell off, firmer basis levels seemed plausible, and I was able to point out that there was bullish potential in Aug-Sep.  I further expected that if Aug-Sep rallied, it would pull Sep-Nov along with it firmer, … Read More

Sep-Dec Corn Spread Overdone

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In Tuesday’s AM letter, I indicated that Sep-Dec seemed overdone with firmer flat price, weaker basis and good old crop stocks.  This spread has weakened a good deal since then.

New Crop Bean Spreads

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After an impressive rally in new crop bean spreads, I had indicated that there could likely be a bearish correction.  Much of that correction seems to have already come by the open on Monday morning, but that has been a … Read More

New Crop Corn Spreads

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After watching the bean spreads aggressively price in the production risks from weather, I had pointed out that corn spreads were lagging behind, and likely had a good amount of catching up to do, which they did in dramatic fashion, … Read More

July-Aug Beans

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Based upon what the cash markets were doing, as well as past behavior of earlier spreads, I was able to point out the bullish potential in this spread at a time when it was very cheap relative to where it … Read More

Aug-Sep and Sep-Oct Meal

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Based upon the performance of July-Aug and the relative value offered by QU and UV meal, here I identified not only the bullish potential, but a way to handicap the risk associated with trading these inverted spreads.

Oct-Dec Meal

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In this instance, the Oct-Dec meal seemed to be an outlier, trading considerably weaker than all other spreads around it. Since pointing this out 2 weeks in a row, this spread has firmed close to $2.50.

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