Mar-May Wheat Bouncing Again

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Here I pointed out that the Mar-May wheat would likely bounce once gain if it got near the 50% level of storage.  This worked 2 times in a row, and provided very nice rewards for those who were involved.

Dec-Mar Corn Bullish Potential

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Here I was able to point out the bullish potential in Dec-Mar corn if WASDE produced a bearish flat price reaction.  The WASDE report did produce a bearish move in flat price, and the Dec-Mar spread was subsequently able to … Read More

XF Beans

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Here I was correctly able to predict a move towards the -5 carry level, but ultimately a lack of sizable deliveries pushing this spread firmer.  This spread traded to exactly 5 carry, and then exploded to an inverse.

HK Wheat

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In this spread, I was able to also properly point out the support level near 50% of its storage levels, and as Dec-Mar wheat rallied, Mar-May also rallied considerably as well.  The Mar-May provided very good opportunities for entry, as … Read More

ZH Wheat

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Here I was able to properly predict the support level near 50% of storage level.  This spread not only bounced off of that level, but firmed considerably, and provided ample opportunity to enter when it was near the 50% of … Read More

July-Sep Corn Weakening

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It was a long time coming, but this spread finally seemed to give up the premium it was holding on to.  There seemed little reason for it to hold on to that amount of risk premium when everything around it … Read More

Oct-Dec Oil sell off

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Here I was able to predict the weakening of the Oct-Dec spread heading in to FND.  This spread traded out to exactly the level that I expected immediately prior to FND.

Mar-May Wheat

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This spread has consistently performed to the bull side when trading wider than 5 carry.  Shortly after pointing out that pattern, this spread firmed 1.5 cents in rapid fashion, and proved once again to be a solid buy at levels … Read More

May-July Corn too firm

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With harvest around the corner, May-July seemed far too firm relative to the earlier 2 spreads, and seemed about ready for a correction.

Sep-Nov beans bullish potential

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Here I as able to point out not only the bullish potential, but also the limited bearish risk in this spread.  At the time of my initial analysis, this spread was trading 13 cents weaker than where it ultimately moved, … Read More

New Crop Beans overdone

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Once the weather threat subsided, it felt that the market had priced in too much risk premium, and I was able to point out how overdone the new crop bean spreads had become.

Aug-Sep and Sep-Oct Meal

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Here old crop bean tightness and pushes in cash pointed out a good deal more bullish potential possible in the meal spreads.

Old Crop Beans

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With the flat price sell off, firmer basis levels seemed plausible, and I was able to point out that there was bullish potential in Aug-Sep.  I further expected that if Aug-Sep rallied, it would pull Sep-Nov along with it firmer, … Read More

Sep-Dec Corn Spread Overdone

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In Tuesday’s AM letter, I indicated that Sep-Dec seemed overdone with firmer flat price, weaker basis and good old crop stocks.  This spread has weakened a good deal since then.

New Crop Bean Spreads

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After an impressive rally in new crop bean spreads, I had indicated that there could likely be a bearish correction.  Much of that correction seems to have already come by the open on Monday morning, but that has been a … Read More

New Crop Corn Spreads

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After watching the bean spreads aggressively price in the production risks from weather, I had pointed out that corn spreads were lagging behind, and likely had a good amount of catching up to do, which they did in dramatic fashion, … Read More

July-Aug Beans

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Based upon what the cash markets were doing, as well as past behavior of earlier spreads, I was able to point out the bullish potential in this spread at a time when it was very cheap relative to where it … Read More

Aug-Sep and Sep-Oct Meal

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Based upon the performance of July-Aug and the relative value offered by QU and UV meal, here I identified not only the bullish potential, but a way to handicap the risk associated with trading these inverted spreads.

Oct-Dec Meal

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In this instance, the Oct-Dec meal seemed to be an outlier, trading considerably weaker than all other spreads around it. Since pointing this out 2 weeks in a row, this spread has firmed close to $2.50.

UZ and ZH wheat

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I have been speaking about UZ and ZH wheat for a few weeks now, and how they continued trading in a manner inconsistent with July-Sep.  As July-Sep narrowed, it seemed inevitable that Sep-Dec and Dec-Mar would have to follow, as … Read More

May/July corn call

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I underestimated the overall potential here, but was able to call the potential for firmer levels, as well as lack of deliveries.

May/July Bean Call

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When everything was lining up a few weeks prior to the delivery cycle, and when rolls had wound down, this spread seemed like it had the capacity to firm, and that belief was proven to be right.